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Post by james on Mar 1, 2017 3:28:43 GMT
Hello. I am attaching here a link to the predictions I have made for the upcoming General Conference in April. I have posted most of these predictions in other subjects. The one thing I couldn't get to format properly is those predictions I have made about who will speak when during the conference. It just seems to be more common-sense to post the predictions in total here. That said, I think I would prefer it if discussions about other parts of these predictions stayed where they were. If this subject could be used to discuss my specific speaking order predictions, that would be great. I welcome feedback. Barring anything changing, this might well be the final version of these predictions. That said, enjoy, and let the discussion begin! All predictions relating to this conference.docx (17.23 KB) |
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Post by brycen on Mar 6, 2017 12:07:22 GMT
I've tried to do this, privately, on a few occasions. But I never figured out a way to go beyond predicting when an apostle would be slated to speak and put in specific names. I'm just wondering how you do this. I also never got right all of my predictions of which non-presidency seventies would speak. It seems a formidable task. It seems like there is one seventy who has not spoken in many years, can't remember who right now. I know I was expecting him to speak last October and he didn't.
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Post by mikejohnson on Mar 6, 2017 21:16:32 GMT
I still think that southwest Missouri is more likely than northwest Arkansas for a temple. There are 6 stakes with 54 wards and branches in SW Missouri and 4 stakes with 38 wards and branches in NW Arkansas. Since 2010, SW Mo has grown by 2 stakes and 10 wards and branches while NW Arkansas has grown by 1 stake and 9 wards and branches. Also Springfield is more in the center of the 10-stake area than the much smaller cities of Bentonville or Rogers. The 7-county Springfield-Branson metro area has a larger population than the 4-county Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro area. The next stake will likely be in the Springfield or Branson area (the two Springfield stakes have 19 wards and 2 branches compared to 14 wards and 5 branches for the two stakes in Benton Country Arkansas.
All that said, the 12 stakes across southern Virginia have among the best claims for a temple in the US.
A good metric is one where both numbers of wards and distance to temples is key. Using ward-hours (adding up the number of hours from google maps for each ward, counting each branch as 1/3 of a ward), I get:
121.8 ward-hours for the 6 SW Missouri stakes and 102.1 ward-hours for the 4 stakes of NE Arkansas. The 12 southern Virginia stakes have 275.1 ward-hours. Missouri outweighs Arkansas and southern Virginia outweighs both combined. On the extreme end, there are 6 wards/branches with more than 4 hours from the temple in southern Virginia and none in either SW Missouri or NW Arkansas. At more than 3 hours, there are 56 wards and branches in southern Virginia compared to 34 in NW Arkansas stakes and 11 in SW Missouri stakes.
The idea is to get temples closer to the members. The only negative on a temple in southern Virginia is the impact on the Washington DC temple. That has been claimed for decades about temples taking away stakes from the DC temple, but they keep doing it. And taking away stakes from the Oklahoma City, Kansas City, and St. Louis temples hurts them as well. Besides it is about getting temples closer to the people. I reject the idea that if people living relatively close to a temple can't fill it than those living many hours away need to suffer.
Even if a temple is announced for southern Virginia this April, it won't be finished before the DC temple is renovated and reopened in around 2020. But, a new temple in southern Virginia would be great. Members have to travel a long distance to the temple. And the state with by far the largest LDS population would no longer be temple-less. Virginia has more members, more stakes, and more congregations than any country or state without a temple.
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Post by James Anderson on Mar 7, 2017 3:07:17 GMT
There is the matter concerning southern Virginia of the temple at Raleigh-Durham which should be reasonably close to some of those stakes.
That temple may have either two 25-seat rooms or one fifty-seat room, or they clould be a little different sized. temples.lds.org says it runs from 11 to 15 endwo==ment sessions a week, I think if the members really took up doing more work there we could see more sessions there. So I think right now it is running about half capacity with attendance being less.
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Post by james on Mar 7, 2017 5:13:35 GMT
I've tried to do this, privately, on a few occasions. But I never figured out a way to go beyond predicting when an apostle would be slated to speak and put in specific names. I'm just wondering how you do this. I also never got right all of my predictions of which non-presidency seventies would speak. It seems a formidable task. It seems like there is one seventy who has not spoken in many years, can't remember who right now. I know I was expecting him to speak last October and he didn't. brycen, I have done this for years, and, to my credit, I average between 60-80% accuracy with predictions like this. It's easy to observe patterns of the past and make predictions for the future once you know what you're doing. I have noted when certain people have spoken previously, if they have done so at all, and who we haven't heard from in a while. The apostles are the easiest to do. Except when they are brand new, there is a pattern to all their rotations between sessions. We hear from 2-3 members of the Presidency of the Seventy every conference, and I have files noting when our currently serving 7 Presidents have last spoken. There is no doubt in my mind that Bishop Causse will speak to us from the Presiding Bishopric. He is the one member of the "new" Presiding Bishopric that has not yet spoken, and he last had a chance to do so in April 2015, before he became the Presiding Bishop. There are patterns to the order in which our auxiliary presidency members speak as well. The 3 women presidencies rotate every conference, with two women from those nine chosen to speak. As for the "male" auxiliaries, since it was decided to not have GA Seventies serve in those presidencies, they have alternated every other conference. It is in noticing and being able to analyze these predictions that I have done as well as I have. Perhaps the hardest to pin down are when new seventies will speak, and which GA seventies that have not spoken in a while will do so. There are a number of new seventies from last April that have yet to speak during General Conference, and with the exception of a couple that are older, all of them have plenty of time in terms of how soon they will be 70 and will be released. As for more seasoned GAs, there are patterns there too. It is not uncommon to have those brethren speak to us roughly once every five years or so. Those I have indicated here will either be 70 in a few years and will not have another chance to speak in General Conference if it doesn't happen this time, and there are many that are past that five-year mark. That is probably the greatest challenge I face in putting this together. I can post more specifics on my predictions elsewhere in this topic about how I determine the speaking order for apostles, the Presidency of the Seventy, the Presiding Bishopric, and General Authority Seventies if anyone would be interested in that. Each of those would likely be a separate topic because there is so much that goes into it. Does that answer your questions? |
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Post by james on Mar 7, 2017 5:20:31 GMT
I still think that southwest Missouri is more likely than northwest Arkansas for a temple. There are 6 stakes with 54 wards and branches in SW Missouri and 4 stakes with 38 wards and branches in NW Arkansas. Since 2010, SW Mo has grown by 2 stakes and 10 wards and branches while NW Arkansas has grown by 1 stake and 9 wards and branches. Also Springfield is more in the center of the 10-stake area than the much smaller cities of Bentonville or Rogers. The 7-county Springfield-Branson metro area has a larger population than the 4-county Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro area. The next stake will likely be in the Springfield or Branson area (the two Springfield stakes have 19 wards and 2 branches compared to 14 wards and 5 branches for the two stakes in Benton Country Arkansas. All that said, the 12 stakes across southern Virginia have among the best claims for a temple in the US. A good metric is one where both numbers of wards and distance to temples is key. Using ward-hours (adding up the number of hours from google maps for each ward, counting each branch as 1/3 of a ward), I get: 121.8 ward-hours for the 6 SW Missouri stakes and 102.1 ward-hours for the 4 stakes of NE Arkansas. The 12 southern Virginia stakes have 275.1 ward-hours. Missouri outweighs Arkansas and southern Virginia outweighs both combined. On the extreme end, there are 6 wards/branches with more than 4 hours from the temple in southern Virginia and none in either SW Missouri or NW Arkansas. At more than 3 hours, there are 56 wards and branches in southern Virginia compared to 34 in NW Arkansas stakes and 11 in SW Missouri stakes. The idea is to get temples closer to the members. The only negative on a temple in southern Virginia is the impact on the Washington DC temple. That has been claimed for decades about temples taking away stakes from the DC temple, but they keep doing it. And taking away stakes from the Oklahoma City, Kansas City, and St. Louis temples hurts them as well. Besides it is about getting temples closer to the people. I reject the idea that if people living relatively close to a temple can't fill it than those living many hours away need to suffer. Even if a temple is announced for southern Virginia this April, it won't be finished before the DC temple is renovated and reopened in around 2020. But, a new temple in southern Virginia would be great. Members have to travel a long distance to the temple. And the state with by far the largest LDS population would no longer be temple-less. Virginia has more members, more stakes, and more congregations than any country or state without a temple. Hey, Mike! Thanks for the comment. My reasons for predicting Bentonville Arkansas over and above Missouri is because I have received a report of a temple site being purchased in Bentonville. While that does not in any way indicate how imminent that announcement is, I have kept an eye on growth in the area the temple would serve, and I have the assurance that such a temple will be announced when the relevant factors, above and beyond what you mentioned above, are met. So I have no doubt it will happen, and that it will be sooner rather than later. I agree with you about Viriginia making the most sense in terms of membership and activity for a future temple. But there are other factors of unit growth, how the locals might view such an announcement (whether they would welcome or oppose it), and how busy those the temple would serve are keeping the temple from which numbers would be drawn for a Viriginia temple. And in those respects, though I do not know every nuance, I can say that Arkansas is closer to needing a temple than Viriginia or Missouri. I will keep an eye out and reprioritize if I feel that other factors warrant moving Virginia up. Right now, though, outside of Utah, I have done the research to confirm that, barring anything unexpected (which has been known to happen), Missoula Montana and Bentonville Arkansas will be the next US temples to be announced. Thanks for the input. Hope that helps explain my reasoning. |
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Post by james on Mar 7, 2017 5:25:10 GMT
There is the matter concerning southern Virginia of the temple at Raleigh-Durham which should be reasonably close to some of those stakes. That temple may have either two 25-seat rooms or one fifty-seat room, or they clould be a little different sized. temples.lds.org says it runs from 11 to 15 endwo==ment sessions a week, I think if the members really took up doing more work there we could see more sessions there. So I think right now it is running about half capacity with attendance being less. Great observations, James! Thanks. I appreciate having my opinion backed up with actual numbers from the temple. It will be interesting to see. I wouldn't rule Viriginia out completely, and the Lord has surprised me a lot with where and when He needs a temple in a certain place. But I come as being one who, though blindsided by the temples announced almost two years ago, correctly predicted the exact locations for two of the four announced last year, and the correct nation but the wrong city for the other two. I am constantly looking to improve my predictions, and I welcome all input. It does take something pretty significant for me to alter the order of my list of temple predictions or to eliminate a possibility, but it has been known to happen. I appreciate everyone's insights. Let the discussion continue! |
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Post by james on Mar 7, 2017 8:40:27 GMT
And just a general comment on where I would like this thread to go because I don't want to have to monitor the conversation on the same topic in two different sections of this forum. I think it best overall if we could maybe keep the discussion of my temple predictions in the thread I have created for that under the forum section of temples, and leave this section free to discuss the nuances of my speaking order predictions and how I determine that. If that would be all right with everyone, that's what we'll do. If it is going to be a problem doing so, I will do my best to try and keep my comments relevant to each of the two separate discussions that are taking place in this regard. But as my temple predictions are in a separate place, it makes more sense to me if the general discussion here can be focused on speaker order. Would that be all right with everyone?
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Post by scotts on Mar 16, 2017 19:32:21 GMT
I feel it a safe bet that we will be called to be more respectful of those who believe different and to be better examples in our communities. Essentially a response to the election and the protests that followed. There may be further emphasis on the importance of families and the doctrines in the Proclamation.
Not a prediction, but a hope. President Monson will be able to give a longer talk than he has the past times. Although Priesthood session may still be only 1.5 hours.
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Post by james on Mar 16, 2017 22:22:44 GMT
I feel it a safe bet that we will be called to be more respectful of those who believe different and to be better examples in our communities. Essentially a response to the election and the protests that followed. There may be further emphasis on the importance of families and the doctrines in the Proclamation. Not a prediction, but a hope. President Monson will be able to give a longer talk than he has the past times. Although Priesthood session may still be only 1.5 hours. I have always tried to personally espouse and live by the belief that we can disagree without becoming disagreeable. As the difference between the beliefs and practices of the world and those espoused and motivated by the gospel becomes ever wider, greater civility in public discourse will become ever more important. That is sure to be a focus during General Conference. It would not surprise me at all if the Priesthood Session still remains 1.5 hours instead of the 2 it has been previously. It seems the Church is wanting to ensure that the special meetings for the women and men as separate bodies are of a similar length. I can get on board with that. That said, I also know that General Conference sessions are, by standard, 2 hours on average, though they have been known, especially lately, to be longer or shorter, give or take several minutes. Due to regulations changing relating to marriage and family life around the world, and the wider acceptance of same-gender marriage and other people's self-concept of being a different gender than the one which they were born as, that is also sure to be a focus. I can guarantee at least one talk about the importance of the Book of Mormon and some aspect about the life of Joseph Smith. And I am sure that we will hear more about the importance of temples and attendance there, various aspects of family life, and the importance of individual daily worship. It is almost certain that we will also hear one or more apostolic talks about the life and mission of the Savior, and that several of our apostles will invoke a blessing that will come from following the counsel they have felt inspired to give. It is also a near guarantee that President Nelson will look well for being the oldest currently serving apostle, that Elder Hales may or may not be so (as his health ebbs and flows) and that President Eyring, our most tenderhearted apostle, will choke up and tear up at some point in his addresses to us, being moved by the Spirit and hoping his words are moving those who listen to adhere to his counsel. I too am anxious to see how President Monson is doing, and how many times and for how long his address will last. If my interpretation of his tribute at the funeral of Glen L. Rudd is correct, he gave quite an extensive address. There are two possible and very plausible explanations for that: 1. Elder Rudd was a great friend of President Monson, who made himself available to the President whenever he needed a traveling companion, and Elder Rudd was known for his wide influence and for his efforts towards earning the nickname "Mr. Welfare." For this reason, President Monson literally rose from his sickbed and, sustained by the Lord, was able to deliver that address as a proper and sufficient tribute to this giant of the Lord. 2. President Monson truly has recovered from the "health-related issues" and "feeling the effects of his age" that has limited his speaking time for the last several conferences. As mentioned above, I am hoping both are true. President Monson is always so inspirational to watch, as President Hinckley was. I also have my clear favorites. I am anxious to hear from Presidents Monson and Uchtdorf, and Elders Oaks, Holland, Bednar, and the three newest apostles. That is not to say I am not impacted and inspired by the other apostles. But these 8 always particularly have talks that have resonated the most with what the Lord needed me to hear. In fact, it was in reading the remarks from Elder Bednar, who spoke at a marriage forum, that led me to realize just how much I had messed up my relationship with my wife, and how important it is that I repair things and make amends. I have no doubt that all the General Conference talks are inspired, just as all the decisions announced in General Conference are. And we have the ongoing endorsement of President Monson himself, to say nothing of the scriptural endorsement the Lord himself has given to words spoken under the direction of the Spirit. If we listen with that same Spirit, the Lord will let us know what it is He needs us to hear, even if it is not always what we want to hear. Many have fallen away because of what has been said or what has not been said in General Conference, and it is my hope that as this conference approaches, we will make our hearts right with the Lord and do our best to comply with the counsel we receive. I have no doubt we will be blessed as we do so. Thanks for the comment. |
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Post by brycen on Mar 27, 2017 10:44:05 GMT
James, in references to the questions I had raised about your speaking predictions, I had noticed many of the same patterns you mentioned in your response. In my own speaking predictions, I usually have had what I call "slots" for when apostles would speak, when it would probably be a member of the Presidency of the 70, First Presidency, etc. I was only wondering how you predict which apostle is going to speak in a particular session. I know they speak at every conference, unless they are unable to attend for health reasons. Elder Scott did miss the last conference before his death, I believe, and Elder Hales may have missed one earlier as well. I know that 2 members of the Presidency of the 70 speak at each General Conference, and are therefore on a 1 1/2 to 2-year rotation, depending on how often members are released. I had also noticed that 1 member of the Presiding Bishopric speaks at every conference, and therefore have a 1 1/2 year rotation. Same with the Auxiliary Presidencies, about 1 year rotation, though I don't always know in advance which 2 of the 3 women's auxiliaries will be represented. Have you seen a pattern for that?
I also noticed that the Seventies tend to speak within a year of their call, and then again on about a 5 - 6 year rotation. I've noticed that there tend to be about 7 non-Presidency 70s speak at each April conference (8 in October since there is less "business" in the Saturday Afternoon session). I haven't checked those numbers recently, but that is what I recall. Prior to the recent decision to stop differentiating between the First and Second Quorum, members of the 2nd Quorum would almost always speak twice during their service, unless they were called to another position rather than being released. Now it seems they will also serve until age 70. And I know that the members of the First Presidency speak twice each, not counting the conducting of Sustainings and the talk in the Women's Meeting (though President Monson actually spoke 4 times per conference early in his presidency), and that all 3 of them speak at the Priesthood Meeting.
The patterns I was asking about were, how do you know which individual will speak at a particular time, rather than what position will be represented at that time? Except for the First Presidency, the Presiding Bishopric, and the General Auxiliary Presidencies, I've never felt very confident in knowing which leader was going to speak at a particular time. At one point, I had noticed that the apostle who give the first or last talk of a session was always one of the 6 senior members, but I don't think that's true more recently. The only pattern I have seen for a specific apostle is that there is always a song before Elder Hales speaks, but that doesn't tell us which session it will be.
I also noticed that Elder Hales seemed slightly better last conference. Though he sat to speak I think, and only came to that one session, he was able to walk out of the meeting (with a cane) rather than being wheeled out.
I am a little concerned about President Monson over his not being the Women's Meeting (though I'm sure he was watching it somewhere), and I don't expect his two General Conference talks to be much longer than they were the last couple of conferences, about 4 minutes each. We're all hoping he'll announce some new temples in the Sunday Morning talk as he has done the last two April conferences, but that won't make the talk much longer.
Another area that interests me, though I haven't done enough research to be able to make predictions yet, would be studying patterns in the General Conference music. Firstly, in the locations and types of choirs that sing other than the Tabernacle Choir (usually in the first two sessions on Saturday, though I have seen another choir in the Priesthood Session a time or two with the Tabernacle Choir covering an earlier session), and even in the rotation of the Tabernacle Choir organists. Speaking of organists, 4 out of the 5 seem like they're getting up there in years, and I wonder how soon it will be before we see a retirement and a new organist, though I wouldn't expect that change or a change of director to be first announced at a General Conference. I'd also like to identify patterns in which hymns are chosen for the choir numbers, though so far I have done nothing more than to compile a list of songs sung after the fact. I've never seen a song be used twice in the same conference unless you include the Women's Meeting, which only started being listed as a session of the General Conference fairly recently, maybe 2 - 3 years ago.
I also started writing down who has said the prayers at each session, but I haven't gone back and written down the ones that I missed, so I don't have a complete list for any conference.
All this seems kind of technical and unimportant in comparison to the last post about the subjects of talks. But I still find it fascinating to think about and write down.
I have often hoped for more foreign Apostles to be called, but that doesn't seem to be a priority for the Lord, at least not recently. I wouldn't make predictions of the next Apostle based on them being non-American.
I haven't watched Elder Rudd's funeral, but now I want to based on the suggestions above about President Monson's talk there.
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Post by james on Mar 30, 2017 23:48:01 GMT
James, in references to the questions I had raised about your speaking predictions, I had noticed many of the same patterns you mentioned in your response. In my own speaking predictions, I usually have had what I call "slots" for when apostles would speak, when it would probably be a member of the Presidency of the 70, First Presidency, etc. I was only wondering how you predict which apostle is going to speak in a particular session. I know they speak at every conference, unless they are unable to attend for health reasons. Elder Scott did miss the last conference before his death, I believe, and Elder Hales may have missed one earlier as well. I know that 2 members of the Presidency of the 70 speak at each General Conference, and are therefore on a 1 1/2 to 2-year rotation, depending on how often members are released. I had also noticed that 1 member of the Presiding Bishopric speaks at every conference, and therefore have a 1 1/2 year rotation. Same with the Auxiliary Presidencies, about 1 year rotation, though I don't always know in advance which 2 of the 3 women's auxiliaries will be represented. Have you seen a pattern for that? I also noticed that the Seventies tend to speak within a year of their call, and then again on about a 5 - 6 year rotation. I've noticed that there tend to be about 7 non-Presidency 70s speak at each April conference (8 in October since there is less "business" in the Saturday Afternoon session). I haven't checked those numbers recently, but that is what I recall. Prior to the recent decision to stop differentiating between the First and Second Quorum, members of the 2nd Quorum would almost always speak twice during their service, unless they were called to another position rather than being released. Now it seems they will also serve until age 70. And I know that the members of the First Presidency speak twice each, not counting the conducting of Sustainings and the talk in the Women's Meeting (though President Monson actually spoke 4 times per conference early in his presidency), and that all 3 of them speak at the Priesthood Meeting. The patterns I was asking about were, how do you know which individual will speak at a particular time, rather than what position will be represented at that time? Except for the First Presidency, the Presiding Bishopric, and the General Auxiliary Presidencies, I've never felt very confident in knowing which leader was going to speak at a particular time. At one point, I had noticed that the apostle who give the first or last talk of a session was always one of the 6 senior members, but I don't think that's true more recently. The only pattern I have seen for a specific apostle is that there is always a song before Elder Hales speaks, but that doesn't tell us which session it will be. I also noticed that Elder Hales seemed slightly better last conference. Though he sat to speak I think, and only came to that one session, he was able to walk out of the meeting (with a cane) rather than being wheeled out. I am a little concerned about President Monson over his not being the Women's Meeting (though I'm sure he was watching it somewhere), and I don't expect his two General Conference talks to be much longer than they were the last couple of conferences, about 4 minutes each. We're all hoping he'll announce some new temples in the Sunday Morning talk as he has done the last two April conferences, but that won't make the talk much longer. Another area that interests me, though I haven't done enough research to be able to make predictions yet, would be studying patterns in the General Conference music. Firstly, in the locations and types of choirs that sing other than the Tabernacle Choir (usually in the first two sessions on Saturday, though I have seen another choir in the Priesthood Session a time or two with the Tabernacle Choir covering an earlier session), and even in the rotation of the Tabernacle Choir organists. Speaking of organists, 4 out of the 5 seem like they're getting up there in years, and I wonder how soon it will be before we see a retirement and a new organist, though I wouldn't expect that change or a change of director to be first announced at a General Conference. I'd also like to identify patterns in which hymns are chosen for the choir numbers, though so far I have done nothing more than to compile a list of songs sung after the fact. I've never seen a song be used twice in the same conference unless you include the Women's Meeting, which only started being listed as a session of the General Conference fairly recently, maybe 2 - 3 years ago. I also started writing down who has said the prayers at each session, but I haven't gone back and written down the ones that I missed, so I don't have a complete list for any conference. All this seems kind of technical and unimportant in comparison to the last post about the subjects of talks. But I still find it fascinating to think about and write down. I have often hoped for more foreign Apostles to be called, but that doesn't seem to be a priority for the Lord, at least not recently. I wouldn't make predictions of the next Apostle based on them being non-American. I haven't watched Elder Rudd's funeral, but now I want to based on the suggestions above about President Monson's talk there. Hey, brycen! Thanks for your questions and comments above. You are quite right about the patterns in the speaking order of the First Presidency, Presidency of the Seventy, GA Seventies, and the Presiding Bishopric. Your main questions about my predictions seem to be how I can pinpoint the speaking order of the apostles, and how I can pinpoint which of the auxiliary leaders might speak when. I am attaching a file that shows the record I have put together for when apostles might speak. The asterisks by each date of a certain session in which a particular apostle last spoke, if they have spoken at all in that session, indicates when I feel they might speak during this General Conference. That can explain that part of it better than I can. Enjoy! Now, as to the general auxiliary speakers, that gets a bit more tricky. Since the Church decided to not have any GA Seventies serve in the Young Men and Sunday School General Presidencies, those two generally alternate every conference. Since we last heard from a member of the General Sunday School Presidency, the odds increase that we will hear from a member of the Young Men General Presidency this time. And with that, since the change which I mentioned above, the Young Men rep has generally spoken in the Priesthood Session, which makes sense. Now, as to the other general auxiliary leaders, the Young Women, Relief Society, and Primary General Presidency members have spoken on a specific rotation for years, with two of those nine women chosen from among the others to speak, and those talks have generally occurred sometime during either the Saturday or Sunday Morning Sessions of General Conference. In the predictions I posted above, we have not yet heard from the new Primary General President, who was sustained last year, though we have heard from her two counselors between the last two General Women's Sessions. She seems to be a lock for one of those slots. The other might not be as clear as I thought once. I had Linda K. Burton as the other female auxiliary member that might speak, but, as you might know, she spoke during the General Women's Meeting this time, instead of her second counselor Linda S. Reeves, who, according to the general rotational pattern of that session, had not spoken in that session for a while. So as far as that goes, it is anyone's guess at all if Sister Burton will speak again during the four remaining general sessions this weekend. It is not unheard of for an auxiliary leader to speak twice during one conference, but it has not happened since the introduction of the General Women's Session, so I am not sure what we will see there. As to how I make these predictions generally, it is often a question of simply observing the patterns of the past and making the best estimate and prediction I can for the future. Since the First Presidency, Quorum of the Twelve, Presidency of the Seventy, Presiding Bishopric, and General Officers of the Church have all been known to speak on a rotation, a lot of it is just looking at a typical pattern and plugging in the right names in the right slots. The General Authority Seventies are by far the hardest to pin down. That is where I have my biggest challenge. But I have noticed that, particularly with Seventies that have been sustained most recently or those that might soon be released and granted emeritus status (which I also am tracking as faithfully as I can), the key is to find those among the GA Seventies that are oldest. Even then, it's hit and miss most of the time. But for me, if General Authority Seventies have spoken in a certain rotation in the past, it is guaranteed to prevail to some degree in the future. The Lord continues to remind me of how little I know in comparison with His wisdom even after faithfully analyzing patterns and projecting them the best way I can. But there is a general rule of thumb that has prevailed in the number of speakers in each session: 4 in the General Women's Session (one from each auxiliary and a member of the First Presidency), 7 in the Saturday Morning Session (Since President Monson hasn't spoken in that session recently, it has been 1 member of the First Presidency, 2 apostles, 1 member of the Presidency of the Seventy, 1 auxiliary leader, and either 1 GA Seventy and a member of the Presiding Bishopric or 2 GA Seventies), 8 or 9 in the Saturday Afternoon Session (8 in October, where the year-end statistical and Church audit reports are not presented, and 9 in April when they are), and those speakers generally consist of the folllowing: the First Presidency member presenting the Sustaining of Church Officers (which has always been President Uchtdorf in April and President Eyring in October, and likely because President Uchtdorf feels more confident pronouncing the names of the many new Area Seventies that are sustained in April, leaving President Eyring to handle only the few changes that are made in October), 4 apostles and 3 or 4 GA Seventies. As for the Priesthood Session, in recent years, the number of speakers has been trimmed from typically 6 to typically 5, and that includes one apostle, the entire First Presidency, and either a member of the Young Men General Presidency, a member of the Presidency of the Seventy, a GA Seventy, or a member of the Presiding Bishopric). That brings us to the Sunday Morning Session, which has generally involved addresses from President Monson and whichever of his counselors did not speak in the Saturday Morning Session, two apostles, an auxiliary presidency member, a member of the Presidency of the Seventy or Presiding Bishopric, and 1 or 2 GA Seventies (depending on whether or not we have already heard from the Presiding Bishopric member and the 2 members of the Presidency of the Seventy). To round things off, we have the final General Conference Session, which has for the last two years or so generally included 7-8 speakers which are the last 3 apostles that have not spoken in other sessions, and 4-5 General Authority Seventies (unless of course it is a General Conference in which a Sunday School General Presidency member speaks, in which case he has taken one of the slots). And while there have been several variations on the general rotation that exists, the speaker layout always looks generally the same for the most part. So when the general pattern is grasped, the rest becomes easy. While there are variations at times, the pattern follows pretty faithfully. One thing is certain: An ill apostle (President Monson and Elder Hales are currently under that definition), they are given preferential priority in whatever session they speak. While it is always customary for the President of the Church to speak last in the General Priesthood Session, there is nothing that says he could not speak first to enable him to conserve his strength for the remainder of the meeting. And President Monson has spoken first in the Sunday Morning Session for the last four conferences. As for Elder Hales, if there is not a First Presidency member speaking in the session, he is usually the first to speak in whichever session to which he is assigned. It is also a general rule that the President of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles is either the very first or very last apostolic speaker in the session to which he is assigned. There have been exceptions, and with President Nelson being in much better health than his predecessor, it is not unreasonable to believe that, as I have indicated above, he could speak after a couple of other speakers in the Saturday Morning Session this time, as apostles have been known to shift spots if there is a reason to do so. So most of it is figuring out which names to plug in where, which, with the pattern outlined above, becomes easier. I would have to look back at your post to tell if I have been able to address all of your questions. But for now, I think that's enough to chew on. Let me know if you need anything else addressed. Thanks for your interest. It means a lot to me. Most Recent Conference Session Apostles Sp....docx (13.5 KB) |
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Post by james on Mar 31, 2017 6:08:09 GMT
I also noticed that Elder Hales seemed slightly better last conference. Though he sat to speak I think, and only came to that one session, he was able to walk out of the meeting (with a cane) rather than being wheeled out. I am a little concerned about President Monson over his not being the Women's Meeting (though I'm sure he was watching it somewhere), and I don't expect his two General Conference talks to be much longer than they were the last couple of conferences, about 4 minutes each. We're all hoping he'll announce some new temples in the Sunday Morning talk as he has done the last two April conferences, but that won't make the talk much longer. Another area that interests me, though I haven't done enough research to be able to make predictions yet, would be studying patterns in the General Conference music. Firstly, in the locations and types of choirs that sing other than the Tabernacle Choir (usually in the first two sessions on Saturday, though I have seen another choir in the Priesthood Session a time or two with the Tabernacle Choir covering an earlier session), and even in the rotation of the Tabernacle Choir organists. Speaking of organists, 4 out of the 5 seem like they're getting up there in years, and I wonder how soon it will be before we see a retirement and a new organist, though I wouldn't expect that change or a change of director to be first announced at a General Conference. I'd also like to identify patterns in which hymns are chosen for the choir numbers, though so far I have done nothing more than to compile a list of songs sung after the fact. I've never seen a song be used twice in the same conference unless you include the Women's Meeting, which only started being listed as a session of the General Conference fairly recently, maybe 2 - 3 years ago. I also started writing down who has said the prayers at each session, but I haven't gone back and written down the ones that I missed, so I don't have a complete list for any conference. All this seems kind of technical and unimportant in comparison to the last post about the subjects of talks. But I still find it fascinating to think about and write down. I have often hoped for more foreign Apostles to be called, but that doesn't seem to be a priority for the Lord, at least not recently. I wouldn't make predictions of the next Apostle based on them being non-American. I haven't watched Elder Rudd's funeral, but now I want to based on the suggestions above about President Monson's talk there. Hello, brycen! I just realized I had forgotten to address the additional points you raised in the rest of your reply, which I have quoted above to address properly this time. I apologize for the oversight. First, one general observation about the typical pattern I observed in my last reply. There are always exceptions to the rule. For instance, if, as you say, Elder Hales is speaking in any given session, he is almost always the first apostle to do so, aside from any First Presidency member that might speak first in that session. I do know the last time this was not true was the last time he spoke in the Sunday Morning Session of General Conference, which was October 2014. That was also, coincidentally, the last time President Thomas S. Monson was the last speaker in the Sunday Morning Session. In the 4 conferences since then, he has always spoken first, obviously due to his health. But getting back to Elder Hales, he was the second apostle to speak in the above-mentioned General Conference session, and he did so directly after the congregational hymn, likely to enable him to conserve his strength. I have done the research to verify that in every General Conference since that one, he has been the first speaker from the Quorum of the Twelve Apostlesin any given session. And in the last several General Conferences, it has only been to accommodate Elder Hales or President Monson that adjustments have been made in the general pattern. For that reason, any General Conference Session that has not featured one of these two people has followed a more general pattern. And that pattern is as follows: Saturday Morning First Presidency Member (President Eyring in April/President Uchtdorf in October) 70 Presidency Member/Female General Officer/PB Member (typically rotates between the three, but has just been the first two for the last few conferences) Whichever of the three above did not speak above NOTE: While the two spots could rotate between any of the three positions, it has been customary for the female auxiliary members to rotate between the Saturday and Sunday Morning Sessions, so it is certain that a female auxiliary member will take one of these two spots) 1st Apostle GA 70 GA 70 2nd apostle NOTE: If Elder Hales speaks in this session, he will speak after the First Presidency member. If not, then the order above prevails. Saturday Afternoon Session President Eyring/President Uchtdorf (Sustaining of Church Officers) Church Auditing Department Report (April Conference Only; Given by Managing Director of the Church Auditing Department, currently Kevin R. Jergensen, position rotates every 5-10 years or so) Statistical Report (April Conference Only; Given by First Presidency Secretary, currently Brook P. Hales, who serves under roughly two or three presidencies minimum prior to being replaced, generally to become a GA 70) 1st apostle 2nd apostle 2-3 GA 70s (2 in April, 3 in October) 3rd apostle 4th apostle NOTE: Pattern of apostolic speaking is shifted somewhat when needed; if, for example, Elder Hales speaks and is not the first apostle to do so. Priesthood Session: Apostle 70 Pres member/PB member/YM General Presidency Member (if in April)/GA 70 NOTE: Since the Presiding Bishopric was changed in October 2015, we have not seen any of them speak during this session. 3 First Presidency members in reverse order (Uchtdorf/Eyring/Monson) Sunday Morning Session: President Monson NOTE: The pattern from hereon out has varied somewhat since the new apostles were sustained in October 2015. I am noting the pattern from the latest conference, which seems to have become the general rule. 1st apostle (as President Monson's talk has not been very long in the last couple of years) 70 Pres (if two have not yet spoken)/PB member/Female General Officer/GA Seventy Any of the four above here as well 2nd apostle Any of the four above here as well (if no Female General Officers have spoken yet this session, it will be here) NOTE: Sometimes they sneak another speaker in this slot from any of the four categories above as well, if there is time, but at other times they have not. President Uchtdorf (in April)/President Eyring (in October NOTE: There are obvious variations, as noted above, and for that reason, my pattern for this conference varies somewhat more than the general rule. Also, in the last two General Conferences, we have seen the Presiding Bishopric member speak here, so it seems they might continue the pattern. The Lord has been known to surprise me, however, so I wouldn't rule out any variation happening. Sunday Afternoon Session 1st apostle Sunday School General Presidency member (in October)/GA 70 Either of the two mentioned above that did not speak in the previous slot 2nd apostle 2 GA 70s 3rd apostle NOTE: It used to be that the first two apostles spoke back-to-back in this session, but in the last two conferences, the 3 apostles in this session have had two speakers between them. So that gives more insight into the formula I use. Does it guarantee 100% accuracy? Of course not. Anytime I match wits with the Lord, He comes out on top. Are there variations and exceptions to this? Definitely. Has a general pattern prevailed as noted above? Absolutely. But that's what makes it so fun for me. And my record speaks for itself. In the untold years since I've been doing this (at least as long as President Monson has been Church President), my average sits at 60-80% accuracy. Not too shabby. After each session, I "score" myself. I give myself 3 possible points for every possible slot that could be filled by this pattern, including those conducting. A 3 means I got 100% accuracy for that slot (meaning the correct person in the correct position). A 2 means I got the right person in the right session, but in an incorrect position. I rate myself a 1 if they spoke in General Conference at all. And if I get a 0 on any slot, it means that something happened that I wasn't predicting. So the accuracy rate is easy to calculate. And, in recent years, that scoring has applied not only to speaking predictions, but the other predictions as well, including changes in general Church leadership, the statistical report figures (in April), and any temple picks. Hope that explains my process more. In the meantime, the prayers and music are beyond my ability to predict. That's not my specialty. But I can say that at least 2 of the 10 prayers given will be by whichever auxiliary have not been represented by the speaker selection, and that 2 of those prayers will also be given by women, since they have been included in the praying rotation. As to music, there are patterns there too. There are several favorites that are a lock to be done during conference, and those are generally the congregational hymns. The intent there seems to be to select hymns that members will easily know without having to consult a hymnbook, as many are watching from home. But there are also many favorites that the choirs perform by rotation, and we can be guaranteed to hear at least one hymn arranged by the current head director of the Tabernacle Choir, Mack Wilberg. And as far as your other questions go, Elder Hales has sat down for the last several General Conferences in which he has spoken, and he is generally only in attendance at the session in which he speaks. In the meantime, President Monson is at every session, and he is expected to repeat that this weekend. The one and only reason he was not in attendance at the General Women's Session last Saturday is that, according to a statement released from Church public affairs to at least KSL, which is fully or in part owned and operated by the Church, President Monson was wanting to conserve his strength for the other five sessions this next weekend. Which makes sense, in view of his reportedly "feeling the effects of advanced age" and speaking less than 10 minutes total in the two talks of the last four General Conferences over which he has presided. President Monson will be 90 on August 21. And he, unlike his predecessor, has not been granted the strength to fully take care of his general duties to speak with as much frequency as a Church President has been known to previously do and to preside at some temple dedications of import to him personally. But the beauty of the aging of the Brethren is that he does not have to do those things to show the world that we have a prophet. He has two most capable counselors and twelve other apostles who are fully authorized to take care of what needs to be done that he cannot tend to himself. The aging of a Church president is not new by any means, as Presidents Kimball, Benson, and Hunter all ailed at one point or another towards the end of their lives. All started out with vitality, and all of them had health issues that impaired their normal functionality at times. And all of them dealt with their declining periods in vastly different ways. For Presidents Kimball and Benson, it involved relying on the remaining members of the First Presidency to carry the load they could not, which included stepping in to fill assignments, including speaking for them using their words. President Kimball had one such counselor (President Hinckley) and both Presidents Hinckley and Monson carried on for Presidents Benson and Hunter. President Hunter's decline was faster and his presidency the shortest in Church history, but he was entrusting more to his counselors in the days before his passing. For President Monson, while his counselors are not getting any younger, they still have enough vitality to carry on the workload that President Monson might not be able to handle himself, and passing any business which they cannot deal with personally to the able hands of our apostles, who are lead by the oldest Quorum President and the most active we have had in a long time. In fact, the interesting thing about President Nelson is that he was not only 14 years junior to President Packer in the apostleship, he was actually born one day earlier than President Packer and is in much better health. He also happens to be just under three years older than our current Church President and has not, to my knowledge, missed one General Conference since his call to the apostleship 33 years ago. And even before his call to the Quorum Presidency, he has long stood out as one trusted to carry out an assignment from the First Presidency in the absence of anyone more senior in the apostleship. For that reason, I have no doubts that President Nelson will live to be the oldest apostle/prophet in Church history, and perhaps even live to be our first centenarian apostle. That will be coming up on September 9, 2024. I have heard from some who feel that he might be our next Church President, and that is becoming easier to believe. I may start a topic soon in the General Discussion section about the health and age of the brethren, which has long been a favorite topic of mine, but I will see how I feel on that later, especially after seeing how our 15 apostles are doing this conference. Anyways, I have rambled on far longer than I meant to. Hope this explains why I have said many of the things I have about General Conference, my predictions of all types, and the health of the brethren. For now, I have given you enough to chew on. Let me know if you have questions. |
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Post by brycen on Apr 1, 2017 15:53:04 GMT
Thanks for all your responses. I will have to look through my own notes to see if there is anything else I need to ask about, but with the first meeting starting in about 10 minutes, it may be too late (incidentally, I would normally be at work right now but have stayed home because of yet another massive snowstorm that has hit New England, about the 5th storm since January to drop close to or more than a foot of snow. It's being called the April Fool's snowstorm, although it actually started last night and is no joke).
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Post by brycen on Apr 1, 2017 17:43:32 GMT
On your picks for General Authority 70s to speak today and tomorrow (I haven't been watching the current session) I have been keeping a spreadsheet of when all the 70s speak, and I think you skipped over some who will be in the rotation prior to some who you listed, such as Ian S Ardern, Jose L Alonso, O Vincent Haleck and Larry Y Wilson. You included Elder Yoon Hwan Choi, who has actually not spoken in 8 years, not sure why. But hopefully we'll finally hear from him again. But it looks to me like Elders Benjamin De Hoyos and C Scott Grow last spoke 6 years ago and would likely be up before those other 4. I expect to hear from 4 of the remaining Elders called last April, 4 having spoken in October. Besides the ones you listed, we could also hear from Elder Valeri V Cordon, Joaquin E Costa, and/or Massimo De Feo.
I don't have much to disagree with about your other speakers you list, except I'm not sure what's going to happen with the women's auxiliaries speaking assignments.
Also, based on their ages, it looks like Elders W Craig Zwick (who I actually met when he came to my chapel for a meeting with the Stake President) and Stanley G Ellis will be getting Emeritus status.
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